The Theory of Probability in Sports Betting: How to Estimate the Outcome and Calculate the Probability of Bets


Probability Theory in Sports Betting: The Basis That Builds Your Position in Bookmaking

Most people who make money from betting, using, for example, trustworthy and time-tested bookmaker 22Bet, often equates it with higher mathematics. Of course, this is reckless, but there are similarities between the two concepts. Because in both cases, completely random combinations take place. Which begs the question, how can this be used in betting?

What Is the Theory of Probability in Betting Formula?

Probability theory in sports betting is a kind of basis, which directly builds its position in the betting business. Almost all bookmakers are trying to set high rates of margin, because of this they get extra income, regardless of the overall result of sports disciplines. Different bookmaker quotes are usually set based on the probability of a particular outcome. If they are calculated incorrectly, the bookmaker will accordingly incur heavy losses.

To somehow recognize and understand what the probability percentage of events will be, you have to divide the hundred percent outcome by the total betting odds, the result of the events. For example, in the UEFA Super Cup tournament, the probability of Liverpool winning was estimated, it was also set the time with a total of 1.77. If we divide this quote and then translate all the percentages, the probability of winning will be about 56.4%.

If the entire percentage is thus converted into odds for a draw and a Chelsea win, then the following margins can be identified:

  • 1/4×100=25 percent. This is the probability of getting a draw result.
  • 1/4.2×100=23.8 percent. This is the probability of a positive result of “aristocrats”.

Usually, the maximum percentage of possible events is 100. If you add up all the results and subtract 100, you get the basic betting income, which the bookie usually lays on the main event market in this tournament: 56.4+25+23.8-100=5.2

Mathematics in Sports Betting

Besides the analytical sections of the office, mathematics is also considered to be in demand among professional players. Translating all statistics in the form of numbers and conducting a thorough mathematical analysis of the future deal, the following quite attractive odds can be highlighted:

  • Total number of shots against the goal post;
  • The average including corner kicks;
  • A certain percentage of goals from the number of attacks taken;
  • The total number of fouls, as well as yellow and red cards shown;
  • The form of the club or a specific athlete and so on.

In other words, this mathematical layout regarding betting in a certain case increases the chances of the user in the “duel” with the bookmaker.

How to Raise the Margin With the Theory of Probability?

Most betting users think that the theory of probability practically does not work on sports disciplines, because the overall result of a sports match is directly affected by many different random variables, especially a lot that depends only on the human factor. But a great example was given that it can be the same factor that the earth’s gravity does not work to the plane since the rule allows it to fly at a certain altitude, and even with a huge mass.

Of course, the outcome of the match always depends on various factors and accidents, and to say that you can only know about something in advance and get the result prevents only logical thinking. But this does not prevent the mathematical canons from working, in addition, the theory of probability exists despite certain circumstances, which is the basis in betting.

It is not necessary to make accurate conclusions about the profitability of bets on the distance or choose other conditional attempts. It is because of the variance, the overall result at a certain distance can be very different from the specified point on a short stretch. The higher the overall odds are, the higher the dispersion will be. More bets can be made here, to understand where it all may lead.

Soberly assess when it is possible to collect a profit, and when it is possible to come to a total loss. Remote betting allows you to earn by placing real bets on sports disciplines. You should not count on the fact that you can catch a lucky streak. Of course, most people are in a hurry at this point to take the money as soon as possible and never come back to this subject, considering it not successful in the future.

The Theory of Probability: Is It Worth Trusting?

Some unwittingly compare the bookmaking business with a casino. On each side, gambling is at work. In both cases, many believe that it is impossible to win. But there is a difference that changes the whole situation dramatically. For example, in the casino the probability is already known, then the probability of real disciplines almost no one knows, even bookmakers.

Why it is quite possible to get the necessary odds, especially when the bookmakers give the desired result. Sometimes the real probability can give out a sum of 50%. This means that the income at a certain distance for the user who has decided to make such bets will be the most profitable. Indirect proof of this will be the fact that the analysts of betting shops are still often mistaken, especially when identifying estimates of the probability of major events, which are put up with certain odds. This leads to line movement, when the leader in the tournament, after a certain time changes his position and instead of winning begins to constantly lose.

Bottom Line

If you consider each particular moment, you should be well versed in mathematical terms, formulas, and statistics. Especially appealing is the theory of probability, which operates at the moment of the basic principles of betting rates, but also in the discipline that the bettor has chosen. To determine a successful position, betting is sometimes more difficult than drawing conclusions from betting in the long run.

But everything, as a result, will come with experience, of course, if a person has the appropriate intellectual potential and is able to react at the first need. This point is considered convenient for most bettors, who, in all likelihood, will play to the last.

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